A Response: "Gov. Cuomo's Approval Sags, But He Maintains Large Re-Election Lead: NBCNY Poll"

From NBC New York (WNBC-TV)

Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s job approval rating has slipped, but he remains popular and enjoys a comfortable advantage in his quest for re-election, according to a new poll.

For the most part, I support Governor Cuomo's policies. He's realizing that New York's government is too large, too complicated and does not promote a business friendly environment. Many of the goals he had as a candidate for governor have gone through: there's a new Tappan Zee bridge in the works, marriage equality exists in New York, certain industries are thriving here (New York is America's yogurt capital, not just Greek yogurt) and the state's budgetary affairs are looking better, including for the potential of a balanced budget. The state has a good credit rating again. But there's still work to be done.

The problem that County Executive Astorino has is this: Cuomo knows that New York State still is far from perfect and has a lot of work to do: and the tax pledge? Cuomo is already ahead of Astorino. Since day one, his administration's number one priority has been cutting taxes, and they've made a point of it. Heck, they've slashed bridge tolls, something I disagree with as those tolls fund mass transit. And when it comes public that Astorino is a card carrying Catholic (yes, he has a radio show on a Catholic radio station) in a religious but still secular state, that might do some damage. And New Yorkers are generally liberal on social issues. For instance, most New Yorkers don't want the Marriage Equality Act overturned. New Yorkers support a right to an abortion under many, but not all circumstances. Nearly 3/5ths of voters support abortion access, and 3/4ths support birth control.

And let's not forget the spoiler in the race: Carl Paladino, who has support from the Tea Party and conservatives in Western New York. Quoting the Journal News:

Carl Paladino, the Buffalo businessman who was took on Cuomo in 2010 on the Republican line, has said he may run on a third-party ballot line if the GOP's nominee doesn't denounce the Republican legislative leaders in Albany.

Astorino isn't going to denounce the Republican legislative leaders. That would be political suicide. Heck, he'll need Brian Kolb and Dean Skelos's  support to win, because he's not getting Jeffrey Klein's support (Klein is the Democrat who heads the Independent Democratic Caucus, whose members caucus with the GOP). Nor will Astorino get Al D'Amato's support, as he's endorsed Cuomo, which only adds to Cuomo's legitimacy. Ironically, it was the former US senator who destroyed the career of the father of the current governor, Mario Cuomo, who is despite his faults is still popular, and even I like him. I view his Cuomo Sr's administration as one that was passive and generally neglectful of the state's slow decline at times, but did introduce some great laws and did at least get the shine back to New York City.

And New York's problems are compounded-when there's Florida and the rest of the Sunbelt with lower taxes and better weather, people are going to gravitate towards that. New York might be a beautiful state, but it's geography isn't the best. The state is in a colder climate and has funny looking borders.
Cuomo does have some demons to deal with:

• Schools in New York are in rough fiscal shape. The Gap Elimination Adjustment and Common Core, along with the new teacher assessments, have pushed schools to the financial brink. New York State needs massive education reform, and Cuomo has made mistakes on that end. I expect the NYSUT (New York State United Teacher's, the state's teacher's union), to endorse Astorino or make no endorsement. While the Gap Elimination Adjustment looks good on paper, it is terrible in practice.
• The Medicare burden is still present in counties across New York.
• Taxes are still high, even with the tax caps.
• Upstate New York is still losing jobs, even with Governor Cuomo's plans. However, to blame him entirely isn't fair, as technology has rendered many jobs obsolete. Also, the price of energy in New York is steep. One thing Governor Cuomo could do is push for renewable energy.
• The SAFE Act still has some people up in arms.
• And one that's personal: his lack of commitment to public transportation. He's made statements, but it's going to take groups like the Empire State Passengers' Association to get Cuomo to make moves.

It's clear that Astorino has almost no shot, unless he were to run an unstoppable campaign with the momentum Obama's first presidential campaign had, Cuomo's got a second term waiting for him, especially as Cuomo is a master strategist. Mr. Astorino, everyone knows New York isn't perfect. This "fairy tale" that you are bringing up doesn't even exist. Once again, the Republicans are making a poor case and it might be an issue that all Americans have: instant gratification. Ivanoff's fourth (or fifth or even sixth) law of humanity is that the mistakes that a politician makes during his term in office take twice as long to reverse. The nation as a whole is suffering because of the decisions President Bush made while in office. What I'm saying: effects of a political executive's first four years in office are not noticeable for another few years.
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These are the views of Alexander Ivanoff and do not reflect the views of any organization. This blog post is an op-ed.